Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
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St. Polten — Wels, 2. Liga
Austria, 2. Liga
St. Polten
WWWLL
Wels
LLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
59%22%19%
St. Polten59%Draw22%Wels19%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1St. Polten1.70—
XDraw4.56—
2Wels5.23—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSt. PoltenWelsCombined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded0.331.672.00
Corners11.011.711.3
Cards3.32.76.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
St. PoltenWels
SKN Sankt Pölten 59%, WSPG HOGO Wels 19%. The safest is “SKN Sankt Pölten or draw” at 81%.
SKN Sankt Pölten 59%Draw 22%WSPG HOGO Wels 19%
1st half
40 · 43 · 18
2nd half
50 · 31 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
St. Polten
- homeSchwarz-Weiss Bregenz2:1
- awayLiefering3:1
- homeAustria Salzburg1:0
- awayWacker Innsbruck0:1
- homeFC Blau-Weiß Linz0:1
Wels
- homeFirst Vienna1:3
- awayFC Blau-Weiß Linz1:4
- homeAdmira Wacker1:3
- awayAmstetten1:1
- homeRapid Wien II1:2
Head to head
- 05/14/262. Liga1:0
- 11/28/252. Liga1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Liefering731314:1510
Liefering731314:15109
Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz731311:1210
Schwarz-Weiss Bregenz731311:121010St. Polten73046:69
St. Polten73046:6911
Admira Wacker73047:89
Admira Wacker73047:8912
Voitsberg723210:129
Voitsberg723210:12913
Sturm Graz II722315:188
Sturm Graz II722315:18814
Rapid Wien II72057:176
Rapid Wien II72057:17615Wels71158:174
Wels71158:17416
Kapfenberg71069:173
Kapfenberg71069:173Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.