Both teams to score
Yes63%
ours 1.58
No37%
ours 2.73
All matches
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Sturm Graz — Marseille, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz
2.6LDWLD
Marseille
2.3LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
27%23%50%
Sturm Graz27%Draw23%Marseille50%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sturm Graz3.75—
XDraw4.28—
2Marseille2.00—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSturm GrazMarseilleCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.671.171.84
Corners9.78.08.8
Cards2.32.75.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sturm GrazMarseille
SK Sturm Graz 27%, Olympique de Marseille 50%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
SK Sturm Graz 27%Draw 23%Olympique de Marseille 50%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sturm Graz
- awaySalzburg0:3
- homeRennes0:0
- homeLASK2:1
- awayRapid Vienna1:3
- homeAustria Lustenau1:1
Marseille
- homePSG1:2
- awayBesiktas1:4
- awayRennes0:1
- homeParis FC2:3
- awayMonaco0:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
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Rennes10100:0147
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Larne20111:2153
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Hammarby20112:41
Hammarby20112:4156
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Real Sociedad10011:20
Real Sociedad10011:2058
Levski Sofia10010:10
Levski Sofia10010:1059
AZ Alkmaar10010:10
AZ Alkmaar10010:1060
Celta Vigo10010:10
Celta Vigo10010:1061
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Derry City20023:5062
Celtic10011:30
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Celje10010:20
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AC Milan10010:20
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Marseille10011:4067
Tromso20021:40
Tromso20021:4068
Midtjylland20020:30
Midtjylland20020:30Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.