Sichuan Jiuniu FC — Henan Jianye FC, Chinese Super League

China, Chinese Super LeagueOctober 9 at 11:35 AM

Sichuan Jiuniu FC

DLDWL

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Henan Jianye FC

DDDDL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

33%29%38%

Sichuan Jiuniu FC33%Draw29%Henan Jianye FC38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sichuan Jiuniu FC33%3.05—

XDraw29%3.45—

2Henan Jianye FC38%2.62—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.98

No50%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSichuan Jiuniu FCHenan Jianye FCCombined

Goals scored1.001.172.17

Conceded1.331.673.00

Corners8.510.59.5

Cards2.72.04.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 878 matches

Corners

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70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 877 matches

Cards

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68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 874 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Sichuan Jiuniu FCHenan Jianye FC

Sichuan Jiuniu FC 33%, Henan Jianye FC 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 71%.

Sichuan Jiuniu FC 33%Draw 29%Henan Jianye FC 38%

1st half

23 · 44 · 34

2nd half

33 · 37 · 29

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context