Both teams to score
Yes47%
ours 2.13
No53%
ours 1.89
All matches
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Shrewsbury Town — Gillingham, EFL League Two
England, EFL League Two
Shrewsbury Town
WDDWL
Gillingham
DLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%28%29%
Shrewsbury Town43%Draw28%Gillingham29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Shrewsbury Town2.30—
XDraw3.60—
2Gillingham3.48—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos: result and total
Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.
Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.
Sign upCombos: result and corners
The result comes from the goals model, corners from the corners model. The link between them is measured on 66,000 played matches: the winning side usually takes fewer corners, because the team chasing the game does the crossing. The market has no odds for these combinations — this is our estimate only.
Corner combos come with a subscription: probability and fair odds for all 48 combinations.
Sign upAverage totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricShrewsbury TownGillinghamCombined
Goals scored0.670.000.67
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners13.05.59.3
Cards4.54.08.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Shrewsbury TownGillingham
Shrewsbury Town FC 43%, Gillingham FC 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.
Shrewsbury Town FC 43%Draw 28%Gillingham FC 29%
1st half
35 · 48 · 17
2nd half
31 · 39 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Shrewsbury Town
- awayGrimsby Town2:1
- homeColchester United2:2
- awayCrewe Alexandra1:1
- homeNorthampton Town2:0
- awayFleetwood Town0:2
Gillingham
- homeNewport County0:0
- awayYork City0:3
- homeBristol Rovers3:0
- homeTranmere Rovers2:0
- awayRochdale4:1
Head to head
- 05/02/26EFL League Two0:1
- 11/29/25EFL League Two3:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Chesterfield942315:1214
Chesterfield942315:12149
Grimsby Town934213:1013
Grimsby Town934213:101310Gillingham934211:913
Gillingham934211:91311
Rochdale941410:1113
Rochdale941410:111312
Tranmere Rovers925212:1211
Tranmere Rovers925212:121113
Swindon Town93249:1311
Swindon Town93249:131114Shrewsbury Town93249:1411
Shrewsbury Town93249:141115
Newport County924312:1210
Newport County924312:121016
Accrington Stanley924313:1410
Accrington Stanley924313:1410Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.