Shrewsbury Town — Exeter City, EFL League Two

England, EFL League TwoOctober 10 at 02:00 PM

Shrewsbury Town

WDDWL

—

Exeter City

WLDLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

33%32%35%

Shrewsbury TownMarket 2.2933%DrawMarket 3.1832%Exeter CityMarket 3.0435%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Shrewsbury Town33%44%3.042.29-10.8

XDraw32%31%3.113.18+0.8

2Exeter City35%33%2.863.04+2.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.69book 1.85

No63%

ours 1.59book 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Shrewsbury TownExeter City

Shrewsbury Town FC 33%, Exeter City FC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 68%.

Shrewsbury Town FC 33%Draw 32%Exeter City FC 35%

1st half

23 · 54 · 23

2nd half

27 · 45 · 29

Bookmakers: 2.29 · 3.18 · 3.04

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 2.5

71%1.65

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricShrewsbury TownExeter CityCombined

Goals scored1.170.331.50

Conceded1.500.502.00

Corners9.78.79.2

Cards3.81.35.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.