Shonan Bellmare — Sagan Tosu, J2 League

Japan, J2 LeagueNovember 3 at 05:00 AM

Shonan Bellmare

DWDWL

—

Sagan Tosu

LLLLW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

33%29%38%

Shonan Bellmare33%Draw29%Sagan Tosu38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Shonan Bellmare33%3.02—

XDraw29%3.46—

2Sagan Tosu38%2.63—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.22

No55%

ours 1.82

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Combos: result and total

Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.

Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.

Combos: result and corners

The result comes from the goals model, corners from the corners model. The link between them is measured on 66,000 played matches: the winning side usually takes fewer corners, because the team chasing the game does the crossing. The market has no ready line for these combinations, so «Market» here is a parlay of two separate bets: the result and the corners total.

Corner combos come with a subscription: probability and fair odds for all 48 combinations.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricShonan BellmareSagan TosuCombined

Goals scored0.170.000.17

Conceded0.170.170.34

Corners10.012.011.0

Cards3.02.05.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.