All matches

Shelbourne — Waterford, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Shelbourne
2.2DWLLD
—
Waterford
1.4LDDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%27%24%
Shelbourne49%Draw27%Waterford24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Shelbourne49%2.02—
XDraw27%3.72—
2Waterford24%4.23—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricShelbourneWaterfordCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners7.012.39.7
Cards2.72.04.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

ShelbourneWaterford

Shelbourne FC 49%, Waterford FC 24%. The safest is “Shelbourne FC or draw” at 77%.

Shelbourne FC 49%Draw 27%Waterford FC 24%
1st half
43 · 33 · 24
2nd half
35 · 41 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Shelbourne

  • awayGalway United1:1
  • awayDundalk3:2
  • homeDrogheda United1:2
  • homeDerry City0:1
  • awayShamrock Rovers0:0

Waterford

  • awayShamrock Rovers2:3
  • homeDerry City2:2
  • homeDundalk1:1
  • awaySt Patrick's2:0
  • awaySligo Rovers0:0

Head to head

  • 08/02/26Premier Division0:1
  • 05/22/26Premier Division2:1
  • 02/06/26Premier Division1:1
  • 09/26/25Premier Division2:1
  • 06/23/25Premier Division2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Derry City32914945:4241
5Dundalk3310111250:5541
6Shelbourne329131042:4540
7Galway United329111242:4838
8Waterford327131244:5434
9Drogheda United328101438:5134
10Sligo Rovers32581924:5423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.