Shanghai Shenhua FC — Yunnan Yukun FC, Chinese Super League

China, Chinese Super LeagueOctober 10 at 11:35 AM

Shanghai Shenhua FC

WLWLW

—

Yunnan Yukun FC

WLDWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

61%21%18%

Shanghai Shenhua FC61%Draw21%Yunnan Yukun FC18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Shanghai Shenhua FC61%1.65—

XDraw21%4.74—

2Yunnan Yukun FC18%5.47—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes71%

ours 1.42

No29%

ours 3.39

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricShanghai Shenhua FCYunnan Yukun FCCombined

Goals scored2.502.334.83

Conceded2.002.174.17

Corners10.711.010.8

Cards0.81.22.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 878 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 877 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 874 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Shanghai Shenhua FCYunnan Yukun FC

Shanghai Shenhua FC 61%, Yunnan Yukun FC 18%. The safest is “No draw” at 81%.

Shanghai Shenhua FC 61%Draw 21%Yunnan Yukun FC 18%

1st half

50 · 28 · 22

2nd half

51 · 28 · 21

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context