SG Sonnenhof Großaspach — SV Waldhof Mannheim 07, 3. Liga

Germany, 3. LigaOctober 10 at 12:00 PM

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

LDDWL

—

SV Waldhof Mannheim 07

WLWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

47%25%28%

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach47%Draw25%SV Waldhof Mannheim 0728%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SG Sonnenhof Großaspach47%2.14—

XDraw25%3.94—

2SV Waldhof Mannheim 0728%3.58—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSG Sonnenhof GroßaspachSV Waldhof Mannheim 07Combined

Goals scored0.831.502.33

Conceded1.501.503.00

Corners11.88.510.2

Cards2.22.74.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 878 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 877 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 874 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachSV Waldhof Mannheim 07

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 47%, SV Waldhof Mannheim 07 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 47%Draw 25%SV Waldhof Mannheim 07 28%

1st half

43 · 37 · 20

2nd half

33 · 38 · 29

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context