Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.02
No51%
ours 1.98
All matches
Serbia vs Germany prediction
VARStats prediction for 13 November: Germany 53%, draw 28%, Serbia 19%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
19%28%53%
Serbia19%Draw28%Germany53%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Serbia5.30—
XDraw3.60—
2Germany1.87—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4407 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4392 matches
Cards prediction
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4375 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SerbiaGermany
Serbia 19%, Germany 53%. The safest is “Germany or draw” at 81%.
Serbia 19%Draw 28%Germany 53%
1st half
17 · 43 · 41
2nd half
25 · 38 · 38
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Over 7.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSerbiaGermanyCombined
Goals scored1.000.801.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Serbia- 4 defeats in a row1:2, 0:2, 1:2, 1:2, 2:1
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 51:2, 0:2, 1:2, 1:2, 2:1
Germany- One win in the last 5 matches0:0, 2:0, 0:1, 1:1, 1:1
- 2 goals or fewer in 5 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Serbia
- awayNetherlands1:2
- awayGermany0:2
- homeNetherlands1:2
- homeGreece1:2
- homeLatvia2:1
Germany
- awayGreece0:0
- homeSerbia2:0
- homeGreece0:1
- awayNetherlands1:1
- homeParaguay1:1
Head to head
- 10/01/26UEFA Nations League0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.