Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.52
All matches
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Eibar — Almeria, Segunda División
Spain, Segunda División
Eibar
2.4WWWWW
Almeria
2.6WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%25%31%
Eibar44%Draw25%Almeria31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Eibar2.29—
XDraw4.00—
2Almeria3.19—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricEibarAlmeriaCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded0.670.170.84
Corners8.08.78.3
Cards1.71.73.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
EibarAlmeria
SD Eibar 44%, UD Almería 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
SD Eibar 44%Draw 25%UD Almería 31%
1st half
35 · 37 · 28
2nd half
30 · 39 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Eibar
- awayAlbacete3:1
- homeLas Palmas3:2
- awayEldense2:1
- awayCelta Vigo II4:0
- homeGranada3:0
Almeria
- homeBurgos2:1
- awayMallorca1:0
- homeCelta Vigo II2:0
- awayCordoba2:0
- homeCadiz3:2
Head to head
- 01/25/26Segunda División1:0
- 11/01/25Segunda División1:3
- 03/07/25Segunda División1:0
- 09/22/24Segunda División2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Eibar870118:721
Eibar870118:7212
Castellon862015:320
Castellon862015:3203Almeria860213:518
Almeria860213:5184
Girona842214:814
Girona842214:8145
Mallorca84228:314
Mallorca84228:314Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.