All matches

Aucas — LDU Quito, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Aucas
2.3LDDDW
—
LDU Quito
2.9WDWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
40%27%34%
Aucas40%Draw27%LDU Quito34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Aucas40%2.53—
XDraw27%3.72—
2LDU Quito34%2.97—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.94

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAucasLDU QuitoCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners7.210.08.6
Cards1.62.44.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AucasLDU Quito

SD Aucas 40%, Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

SD Aucas 40%Draw 27%Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito 34%
1st half
35 · 42 · 23
2nd half
30 · 40 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Aucas

  • homeMacara1:2
  • awayManta0:0
  • homeBarcelona SC1:1
  • awayUniversidad Catolica del Ecuador1:1
  • homeCA Libertad1:0

LDU Quito

  • homeUniversidad Catolica del Ecuador2:1
  • homeCuenca1:1
  • awayTecnico Universitario3:1
  • homeMushuc Runa0:0
  • awayGuayaquil City1:2

Head to head

  • 08/17/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:1
  • 04/23/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:0
  • 08/09/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
  • 04/18/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:3
  • 08/17/24Primera Categoría Serie A0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Macara31166943:3454
3Universidad Catolica del Ecuador31149852:2951
4Aucas31148934:3050
5LDU Quito311471033:2549
6Barcelona SC301111832:2544
7CA Libertad311281135:3544

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.