Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63
No39%
ours 2.59
All matches
—
Heerenveen — NEC Nijmegen, Eredivisie
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Heerenveen
2.0WDLDL
NEC Nijmegen
2.2DLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%26%33%
Heerenveen41%Draw26%NEC Nijmegen33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Heerenveen2.43—
XDraw3.84—
2NEC Nijmegen3.04—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricHeerenveenNEC NijmegenCombined
Goals scored1.000.171.17
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners10.012.011.0
Cards1.00.01.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
HeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
SC Heerenveen 41%, Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
SC Heerenveen 41%Draw 26%Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie 33%
1st half
41 · 36 · 22
2nd half
29 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 3.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Heerenveen
- awaySparta Rotterdam4:0
- homeTelstar0:0
- homeAZ Alkmaar2:3
- awayWillem II2:2
- homePEC Zwolle0:2
NEC Nijmegen
- homeGo Ahead Eagles1:1
- awayJuventus0:5
- awayCambuur0:3
- homeExcelsior2:2
- homeFeyenoord1:3
Head to head
- 03/22/26Eredivisie2:2
- 09/21/25Eredivisie3:2
- 04/27/25Eredivisie1:0
- 10/19/24Eredivisie0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Groningen732215:1311
Groningen732215:13119
Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
Go Ahead Eagles724116:141010Heerenveen723211:99
Heerenveen723211:9911NEC Nijmegen722312:138
NEC Nijmegen722312:13812
Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
Sparta Rotterdam712410:17513
Telstar71245:125
Telstar71245:125Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.