Both teams to score
Yes65%
ours 1.55book 1.38
No35%
ours 2.82book 2.81
All matches
Sarpsborg 08 — Aalesunds FK, Eliteserien
Norway, Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08
1.8LWLDD
Aalesunds FK
1.7WLWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%22%28%
Sarpsborg 08Market 1.7950%DrawMarket 4.2122%Aalesunds FKMarket 3.9628%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sarpsborg 082.001.79-3.1
XDraw4.594.21-0.9
2Aalesunds FK3.553.96+4.0
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
This market opens with Premium.
Goals and corners — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2295 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2290 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2279 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sarpsborg 08Aalesunds FK
Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%, Aalesunds FK 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 79%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%Draw 22%Aalesunds FK 28%
1st half
41 · 29 · 30
2nd half
44 · 32 · 24
Bookmakers: 1.79 · 4.21 · 3.96
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total fouls: Under 26.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSarpsborg 08Aalesunds FKCombined
Goals scored1.602.203.80
Conceded2.201.603.80
Corners13.013.013.0
Cards1.22.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Sarpsborg 08- Winless at home in 4 matches0:3, 1:3, 2:2, 1:2, 1:0
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches11 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches0:3, 4:2, 1:3, 1:1, 2:2
Aalesunds FK- Relegation zone: 14th of 16
- 11 goals in the last 5 matches4:1, 2:4, 2:1, 1:2, 2:0
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Sarpsborg 08
- homeRosenborg0:3
- awayAalesunds FK4:2
- homeKFUM1:3
- awayFredrikstad1:1
- homeVålerenga Fotball2:2
Aalesunds FK
- awayKristiansund4:1
- homeSarpsborg 082:4
- awayMolde2:1
- awayKFUM1:2
- homeIK Start2:0
Head to head
- 10/11/26Eliteserien4:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Fredrikstad23851028:3629
Fredrikstad23851028:36299
KFUM23851028:3729
KFUM23851028:372910Sarpsborg 082377928:3428
Sarpsborg 082377928:342811
Vålerenga Fotball23751138:4626
Vålerenga Fotball23751138:462612
HamKam23751133:4826
HamKam23751133:482613
Sandefjord22661020:2724
Sandefjord22661020:272414Aalesunds FK2359939:5124
Aalesunds FK2359939:512415
Kristiansund23541423:4719
Kristiansund23541423:471916
IK Start23441525:5416
IK Start23441525:5416Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.