Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
Salford City — Gillingham, EFL League Two
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
63%22%15%
Salford City63%Draw22%Gillingham15%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Salford City1.58—
XDraw4.61—
2Gillingham6.66—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Salford CityGillingham
Salford City FC 63%, Gillingham FC 15%. The safest is “Salford City FC or draw” at 85%.
Salford City FC 63%Draw 22%Gillingham FC 15%
1st half
48 · 39 · 13
2nd half
51 · 31 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Over 6.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSalford CityGillinghamCombined
Goals scored2.201.403.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Salford City- 7 wins in a row4:2, 2:1, 2:1, 2:0, 1:0
- Unbeaten at home in 5 matches2:1, 1:0, 1:0, 1:0, 2:1
- League leaders — 28 points from 13 matches
Gillingham- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
- 23rd of 24 for shots on target — 3.2 per match24 teams in the league
- One win in the last 5 matches1:4, 1:1, 1:3, 4:1, 0:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Salford City
- awayWalsall4:2
- awayBristol Rovers2:1
- homeCrawley Town2:1
- awayCheltenham Town2:0
- homeFleetwood Town1:0
Gillingham
- homeGrimsby Town1:4
- homePort Vale1:1
- awayAccrington Stanley1:3
- awayRotherham United4:1
- homeNewport County0:0
Head to head
- 04/11/26EFL League Two0:0
- 10/25/25EFL League Two2:1
- 04/05/25EFL League Two2:2
- 12/07/24EFL League Two0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
England, EFL League Two: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.