Both teams to score
Yes45%
ours 2.20book 1.83
No55%
ours 1.83book 1.86
All matches
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Sacramento Republic — Colorado Springs Switchbacks, USL Championship
USA, USL Championship
Sacramento Republic
DWWDW
Colorado Springs Switchbacks
DDDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%27%24%
Sacramento RepublicMarket 1.8248%DrawMarket 3.3627%Colorado Springs SwitchbacksMarket 3.8524%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sacramento Republic2.061.82-6.5
XDraw3.683.36-2.6
2Colorado Springs Switchbacks4.103.85-1.6
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos: result and total
Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.
Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.
Sign upCombos: result and corners
The result comes from the goals model, corners from the corners model. The link between them is measured on 66,000 played matches: the winning side usually takes fewer corners, because the team chasing the game does the crossing. The market has no odds for these combinations — this is our estimate only.
Corner combos come with a subscription: probability and fair odds for all 48 combinations.
Sign upAverage totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSacramento RepublicColorado Springs SwitchbacksCombined
Goals scored1.501.332.83
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners11.89.310.6
Cards1.81.23.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sacramento RepublicColorado Springs Switchbacks
Sacramento Republic FC 48%, Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC 24%. The safest is “Sacramento Republic FC or draw” at 76%.
Sacramento Republic FC 48%Draw 27%Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC 24%
1st half
28 · 51 · 21
2nd half
43 · 37 · 20
Bookmakers: 1.82 · 3.36 · 3.85
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
68%1.28
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sacramento Republic
- awayTulsa1:1
- homeLas Vegas Lights3:2
- awayNew Mexico United3:2
- homeSan Antonio FC0:0
- homeDetroit City1:0
Colorado Springs Switchbacks
- homeOakland Roots0:0
- awayDetroit City0:0
- homeNew Mexico United0:0
- homeSan Antonio FC2:1
- awayLoudoun United5:4
Head to head
- 06/14/26USL Championship1:0
- 09/21/25USL Championship2:0
- 03/23/25USL Championship2:2
- 10/27/24USL Championship0:1
- 04/07/24USL Championship2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Charleston Battery26144852:3146
Charleston Battery26144852:31465
New Mexico United27137741:3246
New Mexico United27137741:32466Sacramento Republic271111537:2544
Sacramento Republic271111537:25447
Lexington SC271341049:3343
Lexington SC271341049:33438
Tulsa27119732:2542
Tulsa27119732:25429Colorado Springs Switchbacks27117940:3740
Colorado Springs Switchbacks27117940:374010
Hartford Athletic26912529:2639
Hartford Athletic26912529:263911
Orange County27109836:4239
Orange County27109836:4239Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.