All matches

Sabah — Inter Baki, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Sabah
3.4WWLWW
—
Inter Baki
1.4WDWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
73%19%
Sabah73%Draw19%Inter Baki8%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sabah73%1.37—
XDraw19%5.41—
2Inter Baki8%11.96—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSabahInter BakiCombined
Goals scored0.001.171.17
Conceded0.000.500.50
Corners—9.0—
Cards—3.0—
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

SabahInter Baki

Sabah FK 73%, FC İnter Bakı 8%. The safest is “Sabah FK or draw” at 87%.

Sabah FK 73%Draw 18%FC İnter Bakı 8%
1st half
47 · 37 · 16
2nd half
45 · 36 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context

Sabah

  • homeMil Mugan3:1
  • awaySafa3:0
  • awayManchester United0:4
  • homeZira5:0
  • awayAraz1:0

Inter Baki

  • homeAraz2:1
  • awaySumqayit1:1
  • awayKapaz4:1
  • awayQabala0:0
  • awayTuran-T0:0

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Premyer Liqası3:0
  • 11/23/25Premyer Liqası0:0
  • 08/24/25Premyer Liqası2:1
  • 05/09/25Premyer Liqası3:1
  • 03/09/25Premyer Liqası0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftchi Baku650118:515
2Sabah550014:115
3Qarabag54109:413
4Turan-T63216:411
5Zira63127:810
6Inter Baki62318:69
7Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Mugan61146:114

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.