Rotherham United — Newport County, EFL League Two

England, EFL League TwoOctober 20 at 06:45 PM

Rotherham United

LDWDL

—

Newport County

DWDDL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

55%25%20%

Rotherham United55%Draw25%Newport County20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Rotherham United55%1.81—

XDraw25%4.07—

2Newport County20%4.94—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.09

No52%

ours 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Rotherham UnitedNewport County

Rotherham United FC 55%, Newport County AFC 20%. The safest is “Rotherham United FC or draw” at 80%.

Rotherham United FC 55%Draw 25%Newport County AFC 20%

1st half

33 · 46 · 22

2nd half

49 · 36 · 15

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

67%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRotherham UnitedNewport CountyCombined

Goals scored0.830.501.33

Conceded0.830.331.16

Corners8.59.08.8

Cards1.81.53.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.