Espanyol — Atletico Madrid, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 17 at 12:00 PM

Espanyol

1.5LLWDL

—

Atletico Madrid

3.2WWWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

27%24%50%

Espanyol27%Draw24%Atletico Madrid50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Espanyol27%3.76—

XDraw24%4.24—

2Atletico Madrid50%2.01—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.74

No42%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEspanyolAtletico MadridCombined

Goals scored1.001.672.67

Conceded1.330.501.83

Corners7.09.08.0

Cards2.41.33.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.