All matches

Strasbourg — PSG, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Strasbourg
2.6LDWWL
—
PSG
4.1WWWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
26%22%52%
Strasbourg26%Draw22%PSG52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Strasbourg26%3.89—
XDraw22%4.54—
2PSG52%1.91—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricStrasbourgPSGCombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded1.670.672.34
Corners7.87.57.7
Cards1.61.02.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

StrasbourgPSG

RC Strasbourg Alsace 26%, Paris Saint-Germain FC 52%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.

RC Strasbourg Alsace 26%Draw 22%Paris Saint-Germain FC 52%
1st half
27 · 35 · 38
2nd half
23 · 34 · 43
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Strasbourg

  • awayParis FC1:2
  • homeMonaco1:1
  • awayTroyes6:2
  • homeLens2:1
  • awayMarseille0:4

PSG

  • awayMarseille2:1
  • awayBrest1:0
  • homeSlovan Bratislava6:1
  • homeMonaco1:2
  • awayLille2:2

Head to head

  • 02/01/26Ligue 11:2
  • 10/17/25Ligue 13:3
  • 05/03/25Ligue 12:1
  • 10/19/24Ligue 12:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Lille53118:410
5Rennes53118:910
6PSG52218:78
7Angers52126:57
8Strasbourg521210:107
9Le Mans51319:96
10Auxerre52037:126

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.