Both teams to score
Yes63%
ours 1.60
No37%
ours 2.67
All matches
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Lens — Sporting CP, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Lens
2.6LDWLL
Sporting CP
4.0DDWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%25%39%
Lens36%Draw25%Sporting CP39%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lens2.80—
XDraw4.01—
2Sporting CP2.54—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLensSporting CPCombined
Goals scored1.172.003.17
Conceded1.500.672.17
Corners10.86.88.8
Cards2.02.64.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LensSporting CP
Racing Club de Lens 36%, Sporting Clube de Portugal 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Racing Club de Lens 36%Draw 25%Sporting Clube de Portugal 39%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lens
- awayMonaco1:2
- awayLe Mans2:2
- awaySlavia Prague3:2
- homeLorient0:1
- awayStrasbourg1:2
Sporting CP
- homeArouca2:2
- awayFamalicao1:1
- homeGalatasaray3:1
- homeNacional2:0
- awayRio Ave4:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
32
Como11004:13
Como11004:1333
Stuttgart11003:13
Stuttgart11003:1334Sporting CP11003:13
Sporting CP11003:1335
Manchester City11002:03
Manchester City11002:0336
Real Betis11003:23
Real Betis11003:2337Lens11003:23
Lens11003:2338
Aston Villa11003:23
Aston Villa11003:2339
Borussia Dortmund11003:23
Borussia Dortmund11003:23Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.