Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
—
Racing Club — Independiente, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
Racing Club
2.1WWLLL
Independiente
2.4LWDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%26%27%
Racing Club46%Draw26%Independiente27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Racing Club2.15—
XDraw3.81—
2Independiente3.66—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRacing ClubIndependienteCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded1.501.503.00
Corners9.611.210.4
Cards1.82.24.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Racing ClubIndependiente
Racing Club de Avellaneda 46%, CA Independiente 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Racing Club de Avellaneda 46%Draw 26%CA Independiente 27%
1st half
41 · 37 · 22
2nd half
35 · 38 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Racing Club
- awayEstudiantes de Río Cuarto2:1
- homeSarmiento3:1
- awayHuracan1:2
- homeTucuman1:2
- awayIndependiente Rivadavia1:3
Independiente
- homeInstituto Córdoba1:4
- awayUnion de Santa Fe2:1
- homeSan Lorenzo de Almagro1:1
- awayCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero1:0
- homeGimnasia Mendoza0:3
Head to head
- 04/04/26Primera División0:1
- 09/28/25Primera División0:0
- 03/16/25Primera División1:1
- 05/14/17Primera División0:2
- 11/27/16Primera División3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Huracan291111731:2444
Huracan291111731:244411
Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
Instituto Córdoba26134932:244312Independiente28118936:3541
Independiente28118936:354113
Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
Defensa y Justicia271010734:324014
Lanus27108928:2638
Lanus27108928:263815
Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
Union de Santa Fe291071243:423716
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:343617
Barracas Central2698922:2335
Barracas Central2698922:233518Racing Club29981232:3435
Racing Club29981232:343519
Sarmiento261121330:3635
Sarmiento261121330:363520
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:3234
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:3234Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.