Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.27
All matches
—
Puebla — Pumas UNAM, Liga MX
Mexico, Liga MX
Puebla
0.8LDLWL
Pumas UNAM
2.2LDLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%26%39%
Puebla35%Draw26%Pumas UNAM39%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Puebla2.85—
XDraw3.90—
2Pumas UNAM2.54—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPueblaPumas UNAMCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.330.671.00
Corners11.013.512.3
Cards1.00.51.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PueblaPumas UNAM
Puebla FC 35%, Club Universidad Nacional 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Puebla FC 35%Draw 26%Club Universidad Nacional 39%
1st half
34 · 41 · 25
2nd half
29 · 39 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Puebla
- awayTigres UANL0:1
- homeAtlante1:1
- homeDeportivo Toluca0:1
- awayNecaxa1:0
- awayAmerica0:2
Pumas UNAM
- homeAtletico San Luis2:3
- awayAtlas1:1
- awayGuadalajara0:3
- homeLeon3:1
- awayTijuana0:2
Head to head
- 02/14/26Liga MX2:3
- 08/24/25Liga MX0:0
- 03/08/25Liga MX1:3
- 09/18/24Liga MX0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Cruz Azul1051419:1816
Cruz Azul1051419:18168
Tijuana942314:1314
Tijuana942314:13149Puebla1042411:1214
Puebla1042411:121410
Monterrey941416:1413
Monterrey941416:141311
Pachuca1033415:1112
Pachuca1033415:111212Pumas UNAM1033414:1612
Pumas UNAM1033414:161213
Atletico San Luis1033414:1812
Atletico San Luis1033414:181214
Atlante1025312:1511
Atlante1025312:1511Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.