Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.86
No46%
ours 2.16
All matches
—
PSV — Willem II, Eredivisie
Netherlands, Eredivisie
PSV
3.8LWDWW
Willem II
1.6LLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
87%11%
PSV87%Draw11%Willem II2%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PSV1.15—
XDraw9.46—
2Willem II47.17—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPSVWillem IICombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners11.012.311.7
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PSVWillem II
PSV Eindhoven 87%, Willem II 2%. The safest is “PSV Eindhoven or draw” at 97%.
PSV Eindhoven 87%Draw 11%Willem II 2%
1st half
65 · 26 · 9
2nd half
63 · 26 · 11
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 9.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
PSV
- awayTwente2:3
- homeSparta Rotterdam4:1
- homeShakhtar Donetsk1:1
- awayAjax3:1
- awayUtrecht6:1
Willem II
- homeFortuna Sittard0:1
- awayAjax1:5
- awayAZ Alkmaar1:1
- homeExcelsior0:3
- homeHeerenveen2:2
Head to head
- 02/08/25Eredivisie1:1
- 09/28/24Eredivisie2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
AZ Alkmaar761018:619
AZ Alkmaar761018:6192
Feyenoord752025:717
Feyenoord752025:7173PSV751124:1016
PSV751124:10164
Twente751115:716
Twente751115:7165
Ajax742121:914
Ajax742121:9146
Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
Fortuna Sittard741213:14137
Excelsior732215:911
Excelsior732215:9118
Groningen732215:1311
Groningen732215:13119
Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
Go Ahead Eagles724116:141010
Heerenveen723211:99
Heerenveen723211:9911
NEC Nijmegen722312:138
NEC Nijmegen722312:13812
Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
Sparta Rotterdam712410:17513
Telstar71245:125
Telstar71245:12514
Cambuur712410:195
Cambuur712410:19515
Utrecht712411:245
Utrecht712411:24516
PEC Zwolle71156:204
PEC Zwolle71156:20417
ADO Den Haag70257:172
ADO Den Haag70257:17218Willem II70256:202
Willem II70256:202Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.