Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.77book 1.64
No44%
ours 2.29book 2.13
All matches
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Preston — Millwall, Championship
England, Championship
Preston
1.2DLLWLMillwall
2.4DDLWLTeam strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
33%26%41%
PrestonMarket 2.7333%DrawMarket 3.3426%MillwallMarket 2.4441%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Preston3.042.73-3.7
XDraw3.853.34-4.0
2Millwall2.432.44+0.1
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPrestonMillwallCombined
Goals scored1.001.672.67
Conceded1.672.504.17
Corners11.712.011.8
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PrestonMillwall
Preston North End FC 33%, Millwall FC 41%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Preston North End FC 33%Draw 26%Millwall FC 41%
1st half
33 · 40 · 27
2nd half
30 · 38 · 32
Bookmakers: 2.73 · 3.34 · 2.44
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Preston
- awayQPR2:2
- homeLincoln City0:1
- awayWatford1:2
- homeBlackburn Rovers2:1
- homeBristol City1:3
Millwall
- homeWest Ham2:2
- awayMiddlesbrough2:2
- awayBlackburn Rovers1:3
- homeBolton Wanderers4:0
- homeWrexham0:3
Head to head
- 02/28/26Championship0:2
- 11/08/25Championship1:1
- 02/18/25Championship1:1
- 09/28/24Championship1:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919
Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722
Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:14523Preston81168:154
Preston81168:15424
Burnley80449:174
Burnley80449:174Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.