All matches

Portuguesa — Deportivo La Guaira, Primera División

Venezuela, Primera División

Portuguesa
1.7LWLDD
—
Deportivo La Guaira
2.9LLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
34%27%39%
PortuguesaMarket 2.3834%DrawMarket 2.9827%Deportivo La GuairaMarket 2.7339%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Portuguesa34%42%2.912.38-7.6
XDraw27%34%3.722.98-6.6
2Deportivo La Guaira39%37%2.582.73+2.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80book 1.86

No44%

ours 2.25book 1.81

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPortuguesaDeportivo La GuairaCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded1.501.673.17
Corners7.86.87.3
Cards2.32.54.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

PortuguesaDeportivo La Guaira

Portuguesa FC 34%, Deportivo La Guaira 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Portuguesa FC 34%Draw 27%Deportivo La Guaira 39%
1st half
32 · 40 · 28
2nd half
26 · 40 · 33

Bookmakers: 2.38 · 2.98 · 2.73

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

69%1.28
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Portuguesa

  • awayAcademia Puerto Cabello1:2
  • homeEstudiantes de Merida2:1
  • awayRayo Zuliano0:2
  • homeZamora1:1
  • awayCaracas1:1

Deportivo La Guaira

  • homeDeportivo Tachira2:4
  • awayCarabobo0:1
  • homeUniversidad Central de Venezuela0:2
  • homeAcademia Anzoategui2:0
  • awayAcademia Puerto Cabello1:1

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Primera División0:2
  • 05/09/26Primera División1:1
  • 04/20/26Primera División0:0
  • 08/31/25Primera División1:3
  • 06/09/25Primera División1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Deportivo Tachira30177649:3158
3Carabobo311312647:2851
4Deportivo La Guaira301311641:2750
5Academia Puerto Cabello311210940:3246
6Portuguesa301111840:3344
7Universidad Central de Venezuela301281044:3944
8Estudiantes de Merida301161335:3839

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.