Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.89
No47%
ours 2.12
All matches
Portuguesa — Carabobo, Primera División
Venezuela, Primera División
Portuguesa
2.0DDLWL
Carabobo
2.8DWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
24%27%49%
Portuguesa24%Draw27%Carabobo49%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Portuguesa4.20—
XDraw3.69—
2Carabobo2.04—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2671 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2666 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2655 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PortuguesaCarabobo
Portuguesa FC 24%, Carabobo FC 49%. The safest is “Carabobo FC or draw” at 75%.
Portuguesa FC 24%Draw 27%Carabobo FC 49%
1st half
28 · 44 · 29
2nd half
18 · 41 · 41
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPortuguesaCaraboboCombined
Goals scored0.601.402.00
Conceded1.000.601.60
Corners10.610.210.4
Cards2.81.84.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Portuguesa- Unbeaten at home in 6 matches0:0, 2:1, 1:1, 2:2, 1:0
- 13 draws in 32 matches — most in the league6th place, 46 points
- One win in the last 5 matches0:0, 0:0, 1:2, 2:1, 0:2
Carabobo- 3 clean sheets in the last 52:2, 1:0, 1:1, 1:0, 2:0
- Unbeaten in 6 matches2:2, 1:0, 1:1, 1:0, 2:0
- Most shots in the league — 16.2 per match14 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Portuguesa
- awayUniversidad Central de Venezuela0:0
- homeDeportivo La Guaira0:0
- awayAcademia Puerto Cabello1:2
- homeEstudiantes de Merida2:1
- awayRayo Zuliano0:2
Carabobo
- homeDeportivo Tachira2:2
- awayAcademia Anzoategui1:0
- awayUniversidad Central de Venezuela1:1
- homeDeportivo La Guaira1:0
- awayAcademia Puerto Cabello2:0
Head to head
- 07/31/26Primera División1:0
- 01/31/26Primera División0:0
- 07/11/25Primera División0:0
- 02/02/25Primera División0:0
- 09/29/24Primera División0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Metropolitanos32198552:2865
Metropolitanos32198552:28652
Deportivo Tachira32188655:3462
Deportivo Tachira32188655:34623Carabobo331413650:3055
Carabobo331413650:30554
Deportivo La Guaira321312742:2951
Deportivo La Guaira321312742:29515
Academia Puerto Cabello331311944:3550
Academia Puerto Cabello331311944:35506Portuguesa321113840:3346
Portuguesa321113840:33467
Universidad Central de Venezuela321291145:4345
Universidad Central de Venezuela321291145:43458
Estudiantes de Merida321171438:4240
Estudiantes de Merida321171438:4240Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.