Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
—
Portsmouth — Millwall, Championship
England, Championship
Portsmouth
1.4DDWLL
Millwall
2.4DDLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%26%33%
Portsmouth41%Draw26%Millwall33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Portsmouth2.42—
XDraw3.81—
2Millwall3.08—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPortsmouthMillwallCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners14.012.313.2
Cards1.51.73.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PortsmouthMillwall
Portsmouth FC 41%, Millwall FC 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Portsmouth FC 41%Draw 26%Millwall FC 32%
1st half
34 · 40 · 27
2nd half
36 · 38 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Portsmouth
- homeBlackburn Rovers2:2
- awayCharlton Athletic0:0
- homeCardiff City2:0
- homeDerby County0:2
- awayBristol City1:2
Millwall
- homeWest Ham2:2
- awayMiddlesbrough2:2
- awayBlackburn Rovers1:3
- homeBolton Wanderers4:0
- homeWrexham0:3
Head to head
- 02/21/26Championship3:1
- 11/22/25Championship3:1
- 04/05/25Championship1:2
- 01/28/25Championship0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:127Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.