Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.62
No38%
ours 2.60
All matches
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Portland Timbers — Charlotte, MLS
USA, MLS
Portland Timbers
1.7LLLDW
Charlotte
2.3LWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%24%29%
Portland Timbers47%Draw24%Charlotte29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Portland Timbers2.14—
XDraw4.11—
2Charlotte3.47—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPortland TimbersCharlotteCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners11.310.711.0
Cards1.02.73.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Portland TimbersCharlotte
Portland Timbers 47%, Charlotte FC 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Portland Timbers 47%Draw 24%Charlotte FC 29%
1st half
40 · 34 · 26
2nd half
41 · 37 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Portland Timbers
- awaySan Jose Earthquakes1:3
- homeAtlanta United0:1
- awayDallas1:2
- homeSt. Louis City2:2
- homeMinnesota United5:4
Charlotte
- homeChicago Fire0:1
- awayDC United2:1
- awayCincinnati3:3
- awayMontreal Impact2:1
- homeHouston Dynamo0:0
Head to head
- 05/04/24MLS0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:39458
Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
Houston Dynamo27135934:32449Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211
Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112
Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:4731Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.