Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.50
All matches
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Policia National — Estrella Roja, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Policia National
1.5DLWLD
Estrella Roja
1.8LDLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%28%28%
Policia National45%Draw28%Estrella Roja28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Policia National2.25—
XDraw3.64—
2Estrella Roja3.58—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPolicia NationalEstrella RojaCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded0.672.172.84
Corners10.812.011.4
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Policia NationalEstrella Roja
Policia National FC 45%, Estrella Roja 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Policia National FC 45%Draw 28%Estrella Roja 28%
1st half
37 · 40 · 23
2nd half
31 · 37 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Policia National
- homeOlancho0:0
- awayMotagua0:1
- awayJuticalpa3:0
- homeMarathon1:2
- awayAtletico Independiente1:1
Estrella Roja
- awayAtletico Choloma0:2
- homePlatense2:2
- awayMarathon0:5
- homeOlimpia2:2
- homeJuticalpa5:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Marathon852114:617
Marathon852114:6174
Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698
Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:128Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.