Phoenix Rising — Las Vegas Lights, USL Championship

USA, USL ChampionshipOctober 11 at 02:00 AM

Phoenix Rising

LLLWD

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Las Vegas Lights

WLDWL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

45%26%30%

Phoenix RisingMarket 1.7845%DrawMarket 3.7026%Las Vegas LightsMarket 3.6530%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Phoenix Rising45%56%2.241.78-11.6

XDraw26%27%3.883.70-1.2

2Las Vegas Lights30%27%3.373.65+2.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88book 1.55

No47%

ours 2.14book 2.27

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Phoenix RisingLas Vegas Lights

Phoenix Rising FC 45%, Las Vegas Lights FC 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Phoenix Rising FC 45%Draw 26%Las Vegas Lights FC 30%

1st half

33 · 43 · 24

2nd half

36 · 40 · 25

Bookmakers: 1.78 · 3.70 · 3.65

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

70%1.19

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPhoenix RisingLas Vegas LightsCombined

Goals scored1.171.172.34

Conceded1.831.333.16

Corners6.211.78.9

Cards2.22.24.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.