Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72book 1.52
No42%
ours 2.38book 2.37
All matches
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Philadelphia Union — Real Salt Lake, MLS
USA, MLS
Philadelphia Union
2.2WWWWW
Real Salt Lake
1.6WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
59%23%18%
Philadelphia UnionMarket 1.4559%DrawMarket 5.1523%Real Salt LakeMarket 6.7318%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Philadelphia Union1.691.45-9.7
XDraw4.375.15+3.5
2Real Salt Lake5.556.73+3.2
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPhiladelphia UnionReal Salt LakeCombined
Goals scored3.831.004.83
Conceded1.001.832.83
Corners10.311.210.8
Cards2.32.54.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Philadelphia UnionReal Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union 59%, Real Salt Lake 18%. The safest is “Philadelphia Union or draw” at 83%.
Philadelphia Union 59%Draw 23%Real Salt Lake 18%
1st half
40 · 36 · 24
2nd half
47 · 35 · 18
Bookmakers: 1.45 · 5.15 · 6.73
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
70%1.36
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Philadelphia Union
- homeOrlando City4:2
- awaySporting Kansas City4:3
- awaySan Diego5:0
- homeCincinnati5:0
- homeMontreal Impact2:0
Real Salt Lake
- homeNew England Revolution3:0
- awaySeattle Sounders0:2
- homeVancouver Whitecaps0:3
- homeNew York City0:2
- awayHouston Dynamo1:2
Head to head
- 04/27/24MLS1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211
Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:473124
DC United26612834:4230
DC United26612834:4230Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.