Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69
No41%
ours 2.44
All matches
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Philadelphia Union — New England Revolution, MLS
USA, MLS
Philadelphia Union
2.2WWWWW
New England Revolution
1.6LWWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
57%23%20%
Philadelphia Union57%Draw23%New England Revolution20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Philadelphia Union1.74—
XDraw4.32—
2New England Revolution5.12—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPhiladelphia UnionNew England RevolutionCombined
Goals scored2.171.003.17
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners12.012.712.3
Cards2.72.75.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Philadelphia UnionNew England Revolution
Philadelphia Union 57%, New England Revolution 20%. The safest is “Philadelphia Union or draw” at 82%.
Philadelphia Union 57%Draw 23%New England Revolution 20%
1st half
42 · 35 · 23
2nd half
45 · 35 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Philadelphia Union
- homeOrlando City4:2
- awaySporting Kansas City4:3
- awaySan Diego5:0
- homeCincinnati5:0
- homeMontreal Impact2:0
New England Revolution
- awayReal Salt Lake0:3
- homeOrlando City4:2
- awayChicago Fire2:1
- awayNew York City2:1
- awayLA Galaxy1:2
Head to head
- 05/09/26MLS1:2
- 09/20/25MLS1:0
- 03/09/25MLS2:0
- 07/17/24MLS5:1
- 05/18/24MLS3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Dallas27138650:4247
Dallas27138650:42475
Inter Miami271210564:5046
Inter Miami271210564:50466New England Revolution27144945:3646
New England Revolution27144945:36467
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:39458
Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
Houston Dynamo27135934:32449
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211
Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.