Philadelphia Union — Charlotte, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 17 at 06:30 PM

Philadelphia Union

2.2WWWWW

—

Charlotte

2.3LWDWD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

59%23%18%

Philadelphia Union59%Draw23%Charlotte18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Philadelphia Union59%1.69—

XDraw23%4.39—

2Charlotte18%5.52—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPhiladelphia UnionCharlotteCombined

Goals scored3.001.174.17

Conceded0.831.001.83

Corners11.011.511.3

Cards2.02.34.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Philadelphia UnionCharlotte

Philadelphia Union 59%, Charlotte FC 18%. The safest is “Philadelphia Union or draw” at 87%.

Philadelphia Union 59%Draw 23%Charlotte FC 18%

1st half

44 · 35 · 21

2nd half

50 · 33 · 17

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

70%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context