All matches

CSKA Moscow — Spartak Moscow, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

CSKA Moscow
2.8WDWDW
—
Spartak Moscow
2.8WWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
41%28%31%
CSKA Moscow41%Draw28%Spartak Moscow31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CSKA Moscow41%2.45—
XDraw28%3.58—
2Spartak Moscow31%3.19—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCSKA MoscowSpartak MoscowCombined
Goals scored1.331.002.33
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners10.38.59.4
Cards2.52.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CSKA MoscowSpartak Moscow

PFK CSKA Moskva 41%, FK Spartak Moskva 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

PFK CSKA Moskva 41%Draw 28%FK Spartak Moskva 31%
1st half
36 · 35 · 29
2nd half
30 · 42 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CSKA Moscow

  • awayMakhachkala3:1
  • homeRubin Kazan1:1
  • awayZenit2:1
  • awayAkron Togliatti2:2
  • homeLokomotiv Moskva3:2

Spartak Moscow

  • homeFakel Voronezh1:0
  • homeRostov3:0
  • awayDinamo Moskva1:2
  • homeOrenburg1:1
  • homeZenit2:0

Head to head

  • 11/22/25Russian Premier League0:1
  • 10/05/25Russian Premier League3:2
  • 04/26/25Russian Premier League2:1
  • 11/02/24Russian Premier League0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Krasnodar963014:721
2Spartak Moscow961216:719
3CSKA Moscow954015:919
4Dinamo Moskva961214:819
5Zenit960319:918

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.