All matches

Vaprus Parnu — Paide, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Vaprus Parnu
1.3LLLLW
—
Paide
3.0WWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
25%20%55%
Vaprus Parnu25%Draw20%Paide55%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vaprus Parnu25%4.02—
XDraw20%5.07—
2Paide55%1.80—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77

No43%

ours 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVaprus ParnuPaideCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners8.012.010.0
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Vaprus ParnuPaide

Pärnu JK Vaprus 25%, Paide Linnameeskond 55%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.

Pärnu JK Vaprus 25%Draw 20%Paide Linnameeskond 55%
1st half
29 · 36 · 35
2nd half
24 · 36 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Vaprus Parnu

  • awayFlora2:3
  • awayPaide0:2
  • awayLevadia0:4
  • homeHarju Jalgpallikool2:3
  • homeNomme United1:0

Paide

  • awayNomme United3:1
  • homeVaprus Parnu2:0
  • homeHarju Jalgpallikool1:2
  • awayTammeka Tartu2:0
  • homeLevadia0:2

Head to head

  • 09/16/26Meistriliiga0:2
  • 07/04/26Meistriliiga1:3
  • 03/07/26Meistriliiga3:2
  • 11/02/25Meistriliiga0:3
  • 08/30/25Meistriliiga1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Levadia29226181:2172
2Flora291811059:3955
3Paide29156848:3651
4Nomme Kalju29155952:2750
5Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929
9Nomme United29911947:6828

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.