All matches

Vaprus Parnu — Nomme Kalju, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Vaprus Parnu
1.3LLLLW
—
Nomme Kalju
3.0WWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
25%20%55%
Vaprus Parnu25%Draw20%Nomme Kalju55%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vaprus Parnu25%3.98—
XDraw20%5.04—
2Nomme Kalju55%1.82—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.27

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVaprus ParnuNomme KaljuCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded2.001.333.33
Corners10.812.011.4
Cards2.02.24.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Vaprus ParnuNomme Kalju

Pärnu JK Vaprus 25%, Nõmme Kalju FC 55%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.

Pärnu JK Vaprus 25%Draw 20%Nõmme Kalju FC 55%
1st half
28 · 35 · 37
2nd half
26 · 38 · 37
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Vaprus Parnu

  • awayFlora2:3
  • awayPaide0:2
  • awayLevadia0:4
  • homeHarju Jalgpallikool2:3
  • homeNomme United1:0

Nomme Kalju

  • awayTammeka Tartu3:1
  • homeNarva Trans2:0
  • homeNomme United1:2
  • awayFlora1:2
  • homeLevadia2:3

Head to head

  • 08/16/26Meistriliiga1:3
  • 05/30/26Meistriliiga3:1
  • 04/26/26Meistriliiga2:1
  • 10/05/25Meistriliiga0:1
  • 08/10/25Meistriliiga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Flora291811059:3955
3Paide29156848:3651
4Nomme Kalju29155952:2750
5Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929
9Nomme United29911947:6828

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.