All matches

PSG — Le Mans, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

PSG
4.1WWWLD
—
Le Mans
1.9WDDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
71%19%10%
PSGMarket 1.0871%DrawMarket 16.5019%Le MansMarket 34.0010%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PSG71%93%1.411.08-21.8
XDraw19%6%5.2916.50+12.8
2Le Mans10%3%9.7334.00+7.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77book 2.07

No43%

ours 2.31book 1.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPSGLe MansCombined
Goals scored2.331.804.13
Conceded1.331.803.13
Corners7.59.68.6
Cards1.22.03.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

PSGLe Mans

Paris Saint-Germain FC 71%, Le Mans FC 10%. The safest is “Paris Saint-Germain FC or draw” at 89%.

Paris Saint-Germain FC 71%Draw 19%Le Mans FC 10%
1st half
50 · 32 · 18
2nd half
50 · 34 · 16

Bookmakers: 1.08 · 16.50 · 34.00

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

71%1.08
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

PSG

  • awayMarseille2:1
  • awayBrest1:0
  • homeSlovan Bratislava6:1
  • homeMonaco1:2
  • awayLille2:2

Le Mans

  • homeLorient2:1
  • homeLens2:2
  • awayNice1:1
  • awayRennes2:3
  • homeBrest2:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Lille53118:410
5Rennes53118:910
6PSG52218:78
7Angers52126:57
8Strasbourg521210:107
9Le Mans51319:96
10Auxerre52037:126
11Brest51227:85

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.