Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.74
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
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Paphos — APOEL, First Division
Cyprus, First Division
Paphos
3.1LWDWW
APOEL
2.1DLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
57%23%19%
Paphos57%Draw23%APOEL19%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Paphos1.74—
XDraw4.32—
2APOEL5.13—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPaphosAPOELCombined
Goals scored0.671.672.34
Conceded0.331.501.83
Corners10.06.48.2
Cards1.82.44.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PaphosAPOEL
Paphos FC 57%, APOEL FC 19%. The safest is “Paphos FC or draw” at 78%.
Paphos FC 57%Draw 23%APOEL FC 19%
1st half
47 · 34 · 19
2nd half
36 · 36 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Paphos
- homeAEL Limassol0:2
- awayAEK Larnaca1:0
- homeOlympiakos Nicosia0:0
- awayKarmiotissa3:0
- homeDinamo Tirana4:2
APOEL
- awayApollon Limassol2:2
- awayAnorthosis Famagusta1:2
- homeAEL Limassol6:0
- awayAEK Larnaca1:3
- awayPaphos0:2
Head to head
- 05/22/26First Division2:0
- 04/26/26First Division3:3
- 02/04/26First Division2:0
- 08/31/25First Division1:0
- 05/12/25First Division1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
AEL Limassol43016:79
AEL Limassol43016:793
Omonia42208:28
Omonia42208:284Paphos42114:27
Paphos42114:275
Apollon Limassol41307:56
Apollon Limassol41307:566
Omonia Aradippou41304:36
Omonia Aradippou41304:367
Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75
Omonia 29 Maiou41219:758
Aris Limassol41214:65
Aris Limassol41214:659APOEL411210:74
APOEL411210:7410
Olympiakos Nicosia40407:74
Olympiakos Nicosia40407:7411
Nea Salamis Famagusta41128:94
Nea Salamis Famagusta41128:94Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.