Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.74
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
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Panathinaikos — AEK Athens, Super League
Greece, Super League
Panathinaikos
3.2WWWWW
AEK Athens
3.6WDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%27%34%
Panathinaikos39%Draw27%AEK Athens34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Panathinaikos2.55—
XDraw3.71—
2AEK Athens2.95—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPanathinaikosAEK AthensCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.000.170.17
Corners8.08.08.0
Cards1.03.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PanathinaikosAEK Athens
Panathinaikos FC 39%, AEK Athens FC 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Panathinaikos FC 39%Draw 27%AEK Athens FC 34%
1st half
35 · 42 · 23
2nd half
33 · 37 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Panathinaikos
- awayKalamata1:0
- homePanetolikos3:0
- homeKifisias3:1
- homePAOK3:1
- awayLevadiakos2:0
AEK Athens
- awayVolos New2:1
- awayAsteras Tripolis1:1
- homeLASK1:0
- homeAris Thessaloniki5:0
- awayKifisias1:1
Head to head
- 05/10/26Super League1:2
- 05/03/26Super League0:0
- 01/18/26Super League0:4
- 11/30/25Super League2:3
- 05/04/25Super League2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Panathinaikos550012:215
Panathinaikos550012:2152
PAOK540112:512
PAOK540112:5123AEK Athens532013:311
AEK Athens532013:3114
OFI53118:410
OFI53118:4105
Olympiakos53114:210
Olympiakos53114:210Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.