Orsomarso — Boca Juniors de Cali, Primera B

Colombia, Primera BOctober 12 at 08:30 PM

Orsomarso

1.4LDLDL

—

Boca Juniors de Cali

1.6DWWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

46%28%27%

OrsomarsoMarket 1.9746%DrawMarket 3.1328%Boca Juniors de CaliMarket 3.5927%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Orsomarso46%51%2.201.97-5.3

XDraw28%32%3.613.13-4.3

2Boca Juniors de Cali27%28%3.733.59-1.0

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84book 1.98

No46%

ours 2.19book 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1639 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1637 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1623 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

OrsomarsoBoca Juniors de Cali

Orsomarso SC 45%, Club Atlético Boca Juniors de Cali 27%. The safest is “Orsomarso SC or draw” at 77%.

Orsomarso SC 45%Draw 28%Club Atlético Boca Juniors de Cali 27%

1st half

27 · 48 · 25

2nd half

51 · 33 · 16

Bookmakers: 1.97 · 3.13 · 3.59

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%1.16

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOrsomarsoBoca Juniors de CaliCombined

Goals scored0.502.332.83

Conceded1.501.172.67

Corners9.311.510.4

Cards0.50.81.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.