All matches

Omonia Aradippou — AEL Limassol, First Division

Cyprus, First Division

Omonia Aradippou
1.6DDWDW
—
AEL Limassol
1.8WWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
41%25%34%
Omonia Aradippou41%Draw25%AEL Limassol34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Omonia Aradippou41%2.44—
XDraw25%3.94—
2AEL Limassol34%2.96—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.27

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOmonia AradippouAEL LimassolCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded0.671.332.00
Corners9.67.68.6
Cards1.62.84.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Omonia AradippouAEL Limassol

Omonia FC Aradippou 41%, AEL Limassol 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Omonia FC Aradippou 41%Draw 25%AEL Limassol 34%
1st half
34 · 39 · 27
2nd half
34 · 37 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Omonia Aradippou

  • homeOlympiakos Nicosia1:1
  • awayKarmiotissa1:1
  • homeDigenis Ypsonas2:1
  • awayOmonia0:0
  • awayEthnikos Achna2:1

AEL Limassol

  • awayPaphos2:0
  • homeNea Salamis Famagusta2:1
  • awayAPOEL0:6
  • homeAnorthosis Famagusta2:0
  • awayAkritas Chloraka2:1

Head to head

  • 04/04/26First Division0:3
  • 03/14/26First Division2:1
  • 12/07/25First Division1:3
  • 03/15/25First Division1:2
  • 12/22/24First Division2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AEK Larnaca43019:49
2AEL Limassol43016:79
3Omonia42208:28
4Paphos42114:27
5Apollon Limassol41307:56
6Omonia Aradippou41304:36
7Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75
8Aris Limassol41214:65

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.