All matches

Olympiakos Nicosia — Aris Limassol, First Division

Cyprus, First Division

Olympiakos Nicosia
1.8DDDDW
—
Aris Limassol
2.5DWLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
30%24%47%
Olympiakos NicosiaMarket 3.3730%DrawMarket 3.4824%Aris LimassolMarket 2.0247%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Olympiakos Nicosia30%30%3.373.37+0.0
XDraw24%29%4.203.48-4.9
2Aris Limassol47%50%2.152.02-3.0

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.75book 1.68

No43%

ours 2.34book 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOlympiakos NicosiaAris LimassolCombined
Goals scored1.831.503.33
Conceded1.332.173.50
Corners10.87.29.0
Cards1.33.24.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Olympiakos NicosiaAris Limassol

Olympiakos Nicosia FC 30%, Aris FC Limassol 47%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Olympiakos Nicosia FC 30%Draw 24%Aris FC Limassol 47%
1st half
34 · 35 · 31
2nd half
24 · 36 · 40

Bookmakers: 3.37 · 3.48 · 2.02

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

71%1.28
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Olympiakos Nicosia

  • awayOmonia Aradippou1:1
  • homeOmonia 29 Maiou3:3
  • awayPaphos0:0
  • homeNea Salamis Famagusta3:3
  • homeAnorthosis Famagusta1:0

Aris Limassol

  • homeKarmiotissa0:0
  • awayDigenis Ypsonas1:0
  • homeOmonia1:4
  • homeApollon Limassol2:2
  • homeAEK Larnaca3:4

Head to head

  • 01/04/26First Division0:0
  • 09/15/25First Division0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Omonia Aradippou41304:36
7Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75
8Aris Limassol41214:65
9APOEL411210:74
10Olympiakos Nicosia40407:74
11Nea Salamis Famagusta41128:94
12Karmiotissa40313:63

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.