Both teams to score
Yes45%
ours 2.22
No55%
ours 1.82
All matches
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Olympiakos — Sparta Prague, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Olympiakos
3.5WWLDW
Sparta Prague
3.2WWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%28%21%
Olympiakos51%Draw28%Sparta Prague21%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Olympiakos1.96—
XDraw3.61—
2Sparta Prague4.69—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricOlympiakosSparta PragueCombined
Goals scored0.501.502.00
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners12.012.312.2
Cards1.71.02.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
OlympiakosSparta Prague
Olympiakos CFP 51%, AC Sparta Praha 21%. The safest is “Olympiakos CFP or draw” at 79%.
Olympiakos CFP 51%Draw 28%AC Sparta Praha 21%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Olympiakos
- awayLevadiakos1:0
- homeJagiellonia2:1
- homeOFI0:1
- awayVolos New1:1
- awayAsteras Tripolis1:0
Sparta Prague
- awaySigma Olomouc3:0
- awayAvan Academy4:1
- homeJablonec2:0
- awayHradec Kralove1:2
- homeSlavia Prague0:3
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
24
Juventus11005:03
Juventus11005:0325
Crystal Palace11004:03
Crystal Palace11004:0326Sparta Prague11004:13
Sparta Prague11004:1327
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:0328
Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
Bayer Leverkusen11002:0329
Bournemouth11002:13
Bournemouth11002:1330
Lyon11002:13
Lyon11002:1331Olympiakos11002:13
Olympiakos11002:1332
Torreense11002:13
Torreense11002:1333
Sunderland11001:03
Sunderland11001:03Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.