All matches

Ogre United — Daugavpils, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Ogre United
1.0WLDLL
—
Daugavpils
1.6DLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
28%23%48%
Ogre UnitedMarket 3.4428%DrawMarket 3.6023%DaugavpilsMarket 1.9048%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ogre United28%29%3.553.44-0.9
XDraw23%28%4.273.60-4.4
2Daugavpils48%53%2.061.90-4.2

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOgre UnitedDaugavpilsCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded1.830.672.50
Corners11.38.710.0
Cards2.71.74.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Ogre UnitedDaugavpils

Ogre United 28%, Bērnu futbola centrs Daugavpils 48%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

Ogre United 28%Draw 23%Bērnu futbola centrs Daugavpils 48%
1st half
29 · 37 · 34
2nd half
26 · 36 · 38

Bookmakers: 3.44 · 3.60 · 1.90

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Ogre United

  • homeSuper Nova1:0
  • awayAuda Riga0:1
  • homeLiepaja2:2
  • awayTukums1:2
  • homeRFS0:3

Daugavpils

  • awayLiepaja0:0
  • homeRFS1:2
  • awayRiga1:1
  • awayGrobina0:1
  • awaySuper Nova0:0

Head to head

  • 07/19/26Virsliga0:4
  • 05/21/26Virsliga1:3
  • 04/07/26Virsliga1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226
9Tukums31591744:6124
10Ogre United31462130:7618

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.