All matches

OFI — PAOK, Super League

Greece, Super League

OFI
1.9DWWWL
—
PAOK
3.0WWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
21%22%56%
OFI21%Draw22%PAOK56%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1OFI21%4.71—
XDraw22%4.45—
2PAOK56%1.78—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOFIPAOKCombined
Goals scored0.671.332.00
Conceded0.330.831.16
Corners9.59.39.4
Cards2.51.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

OFIPAOK

OFI FC 21%, PAOK Thessaloniki FC 56%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

OFI FC 21%Draw 22%PAOK Thessaloniki FC 56%
1st half
30 · 36 · 34
2nd half
23 · 37 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

OFI

  • homeAsteras Tripolis2:2
  • homeHoffenheim2:0
  • awayOlympiakos1:0
  • homeKifisias2:0
  • awayAris Thessaloniki1:2

PAOK

  • awayPanetolikos3:1
  • homeAris Thessaloniki2:0
  • awayPanathinaikos1:3
  • awayAtromitos2:1
  • awayBrann2:3

Head to head

  • 01/18/26Super League0:3
  • 09/14/25Super League1:2
  • 02/08/25Super League0:5
  • 10/27/24Super League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Panathinaikos550012:215
2PAOK540112:512
3AEK Athens532013:311
4OFI53118:410
5Olympiakos53114:210
6Panetolikos53028:79

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.