Oakland Roots — San Antonio FC, USL Championship

USA, USL ChampionshipOctober 11 at 02:00 AM

Oakland Roots

DWWLD

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San Antonio FC

LDDLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

37%28%35%

Oakland RootsMarket 2.2837%DrawMarket 3.3028%San Antonio FCMarket 2.6535%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Oakland Roots37%44%2.742.28-7.3

XDraw28%30%3.553.30-2.2

2San Antonio FC35%38%2.832.65-2.4

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.10book 1.73

No52%

ours 1.91book 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Oakland RootsSan Antonio FC

Oakland Roots SC 37%, San Antonio FC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.

Oakland Roots SC 37%Draw 28%San Antonio FC 35%

1st half

29 · 48 · 23

2nd half

28 · 41 · 32

Bookmakers: 2.28 · 3.30 · 2.65

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%1.22

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOakland RootsSan Antonio FCCombined

Goals scored1.170.501.67

Conceded0.830.671.50

Corners11.39.510.4

Cards1.52.23.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.