Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.47
All matches
—
NS Mura — Nafta Lendava, PrvaLiga
Slovenia, PrvaLiga
NS Mura
1.0DLDLL
Nafta Lendava
1.3LWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%25%31%
NS Mura44%Draw25%Nafta Lendava31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1NS Mura2.29—
XDraw3.93—
2Nafta Lendava3.24—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNS MuraNafta LendavaCombined
Goals scored0.331.171.50
Conceded1.671.333.00
Corners8.09.68.8
Cards3.01.64.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
NS MuraNafta Lendava
NŠ Mura 44%, NK Nafta 1903 Lendava 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
NŠ Mura 44%Draw 25%NK Nafta 1903 Lendava 31%
1st half
43 · 32 · 25
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
NS Mura
- homeCelje0:0
- homeAluminij1:6
- awayMaribor1:1
- awayBravo0:2
- homeKoper0:1
Nafta Lendava
- awayKoper0:2
- awayBrinje-Grosuplje2:1
- homeRadomlje3:1
- homeMaribor2:3
- awayOlimpija Ljubljana0:1
Head to head
- 08/01/26PrvaLiga2:5
- 04/05/25PrvaLiga2:4
- 02/02/25PrvaLiga0:0
- 09/28/24PrvaLiga0:0
- 07/20/24PrvaLiga1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Olimpija Ljubljana1042410:814
Olimpija Ljubljana1042410:8145
Aluminij1034316:1113
Aluminij1034316:11136Nafta Lendava1041517:1613
Nafta Lendava1041517:16137
Celje933311:1112
Celje933311:11128
Brinje-Grosuplje1032514:1811
Brinje-Grosuplje1032514:18119NS Mura1023510:219
NS Mura1023510:21910
Radomlje91269:185
Radomlje91269:185Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.