All matches

Maribor — Olimpija Ljubljana, PrvaLiga

Slovenia, PrvaLiga

Maribor
2.6DWDWW
—
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.7LWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%26%30%
Maribor45%Draw26%Olimpija Ljubljana30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Maribor45%2.25—
XDraw26%3.85—
2Olimpija Ljubljana30%3.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.77

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMariborOlimpija LjubljanaCombined
Goals scored1.001.172.17
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners11.07.79.3
Cards1.32.74.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MariborOlimpija Ljubljana

NK Maribor 45%, NK Olimpija Ljubljana 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

NK Maribor 45%Draw 26%NK Olimpija Ljubljana 30%
1st half
36 · 36 · 28
2nd half
33 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Maribor

  • homeAluminij2:2
  • awayRadomlje3:0
  • homeNS Mura1:1
  • awayNafta Lendava3:2
  • homeBravo3:1

Olimpija Ljubljana

  • awayBravo1:2
  • awayKoper3:1
  • homeBrinje-Grosuplje3:0
  • awayRadomlje0:0
  • homeNafta Lendava1:0

Head to head

  • 08/15/26PrvaLiga1:1
  • 05/09/26PrvaLiga0:3
  • 03/08/26PrvaLiga0:0
  • 11/23/25PrvaLiga1:1
  • 08/31/25PrvaLiga0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Maribor1055019:820
2Koper1053211:818
3Bravo1053212:1018
4Olimpija Ljubljana1042410:814
5Aluminij1034316:1113
6Nafta Lendava1041517:1613

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.