Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76book 1.61
No43%
ours 2.31book 2.17
All matches
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Lokomotiva Zagreb — Varazdin, Prva HNL
Croatia, Prva HNL
Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.5LDLLL
Varazdin
2.3DDDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
34%27%39%
Lokomotiva ZagrebMarket 2.9334%DrawMarket 3.3627%VarazdinMarket 2.2739%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lokomotiva Zagreb2.912.93+0.2
XDraw3.713.36-2.8
2Varazdin2.592.27-5.4
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLokomotiva ZagrebVarazdinCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded2.170.833.00
Corners10.59.39.9
Cards2.51.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lokomotiva ZagrebVarazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 34%, NK Varaždin 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 34%Draw 27%NK Varaždin 39%
1st half
29 · 38 · 32
2nd half
31 · 39 · 29
Bookmakers: 2.93 · 3.36 · 2.27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%1.34
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lokomotiva Zagreb
- awayDinamo Zagreb2:3
- homeRijeka1:1
- awaySlaven Belupo Koprivnica1:2
- awayHajduk Split0:2
- awayRudes1:4
Varazdin
- homeOsijek0:0
- awayGorica2:2
- homeIstra0:0
- homeRudes2:0
- awayDinamo Zagreb1:3
Head to head
- 05/09/26Prva HNL1:1
- 03/07/26Prva HNL1:1
- 12/07/25Prva HNL2:4
- 09/20/25Prva HNL1:0
- 04/26/25Prva HNL1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Hajduk Split851216:816
Hajduk Split851216:8163
Osijek851217:1116
Osijek851217:11164Varazdin843113:715
Varazdin843113:7155
Rijeka742113:714
Rijeka742113:7146
Istra823314:139
Istra823314:1397Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:167
Lokomotiva Zagreb821511:1678
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica82157:167
Slaven Belupo Koprivnica82157:1679
Gorica81255:125
Gorica81255:125Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.